Derrick Henry RB · BAL vs JAX

2026 week 9 · Week slate · DraftKings $6,700 · projected 2026-11-03 02:50Z

10.8projected DK points
4.9–18.6floor – ceiling
2%projected ownership (heuristic)
–BAL implied total

Projected stat line

Pass yds0.1
Rush yds58.5
Rush TD0.53
Rec0.89
Rec yds5.2
Rec TD0.03

+share: Adam Randall out

Kalshi props — model probability vs price

StatStrikeSidePricepROIPinnacle
touchdowns1+NO0.5157%8%none
receptions2+NO0.5156%5%1.5
rushing yards70+NO0.5455%-1%70.5
receiving yards30+NO0.9488%-8%8.5
rushing yards40+YES0.8378%-8%70.5
rushing yards110+NO0.9084%-8%70.5
rushing yards120+NO0.9588%-9%70.5
rushing yards100+NO0.8679%-10%70.5
receptions3+NO0.8477%-10%1.5
receiving yards25+NO0.9384%-11%8.5
receiving yards10+NO0.6762%-11%8.5
rushing yards75+YES0.4340%-12%70.5
rushing yards80+YES0.3836%-12%70.5
receiving yards20+NO0.8979%-12%8.5
rushing yards50+YES0.7466%-13%70.5
rushing yards80+NO0.7265%-13%70.5
rushing yards90+NO0.8172%-13%70.5
rushing yards120+YES0.1312%-14%70.5
rushing yards60+NO0.5045%-14%70.5
receiving yards30+YES0.1312%-14%8.5
rushing yards50+NO0.3734%-14%70.5
rushing yards70+YES0.5145%-16%70.5
receptions2+YES0.5145%-17%1.5
rushing yards60+YES0.6455%-17%70.5

Data, not advice. Full ladder on /props.

How this number is made

Market-implied team total (DraftKings line via ESPN) × this player's trailing share of team targets, carries and attempts × regressed efficiency, scored with DraftKings' exact rules. Injured-out teammates' share is redistributed. This week's full board · data policy.