dfsroto · projections · optimizer · data policy
Each row is one side of one Kalshi contract: the price you would pay, the probability the model assigns to that side, and the return that implies after Kalshi's 7% taker fee. Where Pinnacle has posted a line, the model's distribution is re-centred so its probability at Pinnacle's line matches Pinnacle's de-vigged price (70% weight), then the whole ladder is priced from that. Rows without a Pinnacle line are the model alone. This is data — a probability next to a price — not advice; thin ladders can move on a single order.
| Player | Stat | Strike | Side | Price | p | ROI | Pinnacle line | μ model | μ used | bid / ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen BUF | rushing yards | 60+ | YES | 0.13 | 19% | 36% | 30.5 (50% over) | 36.31 | 37.57 | 0.12 / 0.13 |
| James Cook III BUF | rushing yards | 130+ | YES | 0.12 | 17% | 34% | 78.5 (50% over) | 94.89 | 89 | 0.09 / 0.12 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | rushing yards | 140+ | YES | 0.13 | 18% | 27% | 90.5 (50% over) | 98.34 | 97.8 | 0.08 / 0.13 |
| DJ Moore BUF | receiving yards | 50+ | NO | 0.36 | 47% | 25% | 62.5 (50% over) | 35.08 | 59.75 | 0.64 / 0.65 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | rushing yards | 130+ | YES | 0.17 | 22% | 25% | 90.5 (50% over) | 98.34 | 97.8 | 0.16 / 0.17 |
| DJ Moore BUF | receptions | 4+ | NO | 0.37 | 48% | 23% | 4.5 (49% over) | 2.13 | 3.95 | 0.63 / 0.68 |
| James Cook III BUF | rushing yards | 120+ | YES | 0.17 | 22% | 23% | 78.5 (50% over) | 94.89 | 89 | 0.12 / 0.17 |
| James Cook III BUF | rushing yards | 110+ | YES | 0.21 | 28% | 23% | 78.5 (50% over) | 94.89 | 89 | 0.19 / 0.21 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | receiving yards | 60+ | YES | 0.14 | 18% | 22% | 29.5 (50% over) | 35.65 | 36.58 | 0.11 / 0.14 |
| DJ Moore BUF | receptions | 3+ | NO | 0.23 | 30% | 20% | 4.5 (49% over) | 2.13 | 3.95 | 0.77 / 0.85 |
| Keon Coleman BUF | receptions | 3+ | YES | 0.17 | 21% | 16% | 1.5 (36% over) | 1.88 | 1.49 | 0.11 / 0.17 |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF | receptions | 4+ | NO | 0.44 | 53% | 15% | 3.5 (58% over) | 2.3 | 3.66 | 0.56 / 0.57 |
| DJ Moore BUF | receptions | 5+ | NO | 0.54 | 64% | 15% | 4.5 (49% over) | 2.13 | 3.95 | 0.46 / 0.47 |
| DJ Moore BUF | receiving yards | 60+ | NO | 0.49 | 58% | 15% | 62.5 (50% over) | 35.08 | 59.75 | 0.51 / 0.52 |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF | receiving yards | 50+ | NO | 0.48 | 57% | 14% | 49.5 (53% over) | 33.27 | 51.71 | 0.52 / 0.53 |
| Jameson Williams DET | receptions | 4+ | NO | 0.39 | 46% | 14% | 3.5 (60% over) | 3.08 | 4.01 | 0.61 / 0.62 |
| James Cook III BUF | rushing yards | 100+ | YES | 0.29 | 35% | 13% | 78.5 (50% over) | 94.89 | 89 | 0.28 / 0.29 |
| Jameson Williams DET | receptions | 7+ | YES | 0.12 | 14% | 12% | 3.5 (60% over) | 3.08 | 4.01 | 0.11 / 0.12 |
| Jameson Williams DET | receiving yards | 50+ | NO | 0.39 | 45% | 11% | 59.5 (50% over) | 47.35 | 61.32 | 0.61 / 0.62 |
| DJ Moore BUF | receiving yards | 70+ | NO | 0.59 | 68% | 11% | 62.5 (50% over) | 35.08 | 59.75 | 0.41 / 0.43 |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF | receptions | 3+ | NO | 0.29 | 34% | 11% | 3.5 (58% over) | 2.3 | 3.66 | 0.71 / 0.76 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET | receptions | 8+ | NO | 0.53 | 60% | 9% | 7.5 (49% over) | 5.32 | 7.01 | 0.47 / 0.48 |
| Jared Goff DET | passing yards | 300+ | YES | 0.31 | 36% | 9% | 270.5 (50% over) | 279.42 | 272.64 | 0.3 / 0.31 |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF | receiving yards | 40+ | NO | 0.39 | 44% | 8% | 49.5 (53% over) | 33.27 | 51.71 | 0.61 / 0.64 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | rushing yards | 120+ | YES | 0.24 | 28% | 8% | 90.5 (50% over) | 98.34 | 97.8 | 0.22 / 0.24 |
| Isaac TeSlaa DET | receptions | 2+ | NO | 0.57 | 63% | 7% | 1.5 (43% over) | 0.9 | 1.36 | 0.43 / 0.44 |
| Jameson Williams DET | receiving yards | 60+ | NO | 0.51 | 56% | 7% | 59.5 (50% over) | 47.35 | 61.32 | 0.49 / 0.51 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | receiving yards | 50+ | YES | 0.22 | 26% | 7% | 29.5 (50% over) | 35.65 | 36.58 | 0.19 / 0.22 |
| Jameson Williams DET | receptions | 3+ | NO | 0.25 | 29% | 7% | 3.5 (60% over) | 3.08 | 4.01 | 0.75 / 0.78 |
| DJ Moore BUF | receiving yards | 80+ | NO | 0.69 | 75% | 6% | 62.5 (50% over) | 35.08 | 59.75 | 0.31 / 0.32 |
| DJ Moore BUF | receiving yards | 90+ | NO | 0.75 | 81% | 6% | 62.5 (50% over) | 35.08 | 59.75 | 0.25 / 0.27 |
| Sam LaPorta DET | receptions | 4+ | NO | 0.39 | 43% | 6% | 4.5 (46% over) | 3.37 | 4.21 | 0.61 / 0.66 |
| Keon Coleman BUF | receiving yards | 15+ | YES | 0.48 | 53% | 5% | 13.5 (50% over) | 28.27 | 23 | 0.46 / 0.48 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | rushing yards | 150+ | YES | 0.12 | 14% | 5% | 90.5 (50% over) | 98.34 | 97.8 | 0.11 / 0.12 |
| DJ Moore BUF | receiving yards | 100+ | NO | 0.80 | 86% | 5% | 62.5 (50% over) | 35.08 | 59.75 | 0.2 / 0.21 |
| James Cook III BUF | rushing yards | 90+ | YES | 0.39 | 43% | 5% | 78.5 (50% over) | 94.89 | 89 | 0.37 / 0.39 |
| Jared Goff DET | passing yards | 275+ | YES | 0.45 | 49% | 4% | 270.5 (50% over) | 279.42 | 272.64 | 0.44 / 0.45 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | rushing yards | 60+ | YES | 0.73 | 78% | 4% | 90.5 (50% over) | 98.34 | 97.8 | 0.7 / 0.73 |
| Jared Goff DET | passing yards | 325+ | YES | 0.21 | 24% | 4% | 270.5 (50% over) | 279.42 | 272.64 | 0.18 / 0.21 |
| Jared Goff DET | passing yards | 250+ | YES | 0.58 | 62% | 4% | 270.5 (50% over) | 279.42 | 272.64 | 0.57 / 0.58 |
| Khalil Shakir BUF | receptions | 4+ | NO | 0.42 | 46% | 4% | 4.5 (46% over) | 2.95 | 4.05 | 0.58 / 0.66 |
| Dawson Knox BUF | receiving yards | 25+ | YES | 0.26 | 29% | 4% | 12.5 (50% over) | 21.13 | 20.06 | 0.21 / 0.26 |
| Khalil Shakir BUF | receptions | 5+ | NO | 0.58 | 62% | 4% | 4.5 (46% over) | 2.95 | 4.05 | 0.42 / 0.43 |
| Isaac TeSlaa DET | receiving yards | 15+ | NO | 0.49 | 53% | 4% | 15.5 (52% over) | 12.57 | 20.5 | 0.51 / 0.53 |
| Josh Allen BUF | rushing yards | 40+ | YES | 0.34 | 37% | 4% | 30.5 (50% over) | 36.31 | 37.57 | 0.31 / 0.34 |
| Isaac TeSlaa DET | receiving yards | 40+ | NO | 0.80 | 85% | 4% | 15.5 (52% over) | 12.57 | 20.5 | 0.2 / 0.21 |
| Keon Coleman BUF | receptions | 2+ | YES | 0.38 | 41% | 3% | 1.5 (36% over) | 1.88 | 1.49 | 0.37 / 0.38 |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF | receiving yards | 60+ | NO | 0.63 | 67% | 3% | 49.5 (53% over) | 33.27 | 51.71 | 0.37 / 0.4 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET | receptions | 7+ | NO | 0.44 | 47% | 3% | 7.5 (49% over) | 5.32 | 7.01 | 0.56 / 0.6 |
| DJ Moore BUF | touchdowns | 1+ | NO | 0.66 | 70% | 3% | 0.5 (33% over) | 0.25 | 0.36 | 0.34 / 0.35 |
| Jameson Williams DET | receiving yards | 80+ | NO | 0.70 | 74% | 3% | 59.5 (50% over) | 47.35 | 61.32 | 0.3 / 0.33 |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF | receptions | 5+ | NO | 0.65 | 69% | 3% | 3.5 (58% over) | 2.3 | 3.66 | 0.35 / 0.37 |
| DJ Moore BUF | receiving yards | 40+ | NO | 0.32 | 35% | 2% | 62.5 (50% over) | 35.08 | 59.75 | 0.68 / 0.74 |
| Jared Goff DET | passing yards | 225+ | YES | 0.71 | 75% | 2% | 270.5 (50% over) | 279.42 | 272.64 | 0.7 / 0.71 |
| Josh Allen BUF | rushing yards | 30+ | NO | 0.46 | 49% | 2% | 30.5 (50% over) | 36.31 | 37.57 | 0.54 / 0.55 |
| Josh Allen BUF | interceptions | 1+ | YES | 0.41 | 44% | 2% | 0.5 (42% over) | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.4 / 0.41 |
| Keon Coleman BUF | touchdowns | 1+ | YES | 0.16 | 17% | 2% | 0.5 (17% over) | 0.2 | 0.19 | 0.15 / 0.16 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | rushing yards | 50+ | YES | 0.84 | 86% | 2% | 90.5 (50% over) | 98.34 | 97.8 | 0.82 / 0.84 |
| DJ Moore BUF | receptions | 6+ | NO | 0.74 | 77% | 1% | 4.5 (49% over) | 2.13 | 3.95 | 0.26 / 0.32 |
| Sam LaPorta DET | receptions | 5+ | NO | 0.57 | 60% | 1% | 4.5 (46% over) | 3.37 | 4.21 | 0.43 / 0.44 |
| James Cook III BUF | rushing yards | 70+ | YES | 0.59 | 62% | 1% | 78.5 (50% over) | 94.89 | 89 | 0.58 / 0.59 |
| Keon Coleman BUF | receiving yards | 25+ | YES | 0.32 | 34% | 1% | 13.5 (50% over) | 28.27 | 23 | 0.29 / 0.32 |
| James Cook III BUF | rushing yards | 60+ | YES | 0.69 | 72% | 1% | 78.5 (50% over) | 94.89 | 89 | 0.67 / 0.69 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET | receptions | 6+ | NO | 0.32 | 34% | 1% | 7.5 (49% over) | 5.32 | 7.01 | 0.68 / 0.74 |
| Josh Allen BUF | touchdowns | 2+ | NO | 0.85 | 86% | 1% | 0.5 (51% over) | 0.48 | 0.64 | 0.15 / 0.16 |
| Jameson Williams DET | receiving yards | 25+ | YES | 0.84 | 85% | 0% | 59.5 (50% over) | 47.35 | 61.32 | 0.79 / 0.84 |
| Jared Goff DET | passing yards | 200+ | YES | 0.82 | 84% | 0% | 270.5 (50% over) | 279.42 | 272.64 | 0.79 / 0.82 |
| Sam LaPorta DET | receiving yards | 40+ | NO | 0.45 | 47% | 0% | 46.5 (50% over) | 38.43 | 49.51 | 0.55 / 0.6 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET | receiving yards | 80+ | NO | 0.53 | 55% | 0% | 79.5 (50% over) | 69.38 | 81.96 | 0.47 / 0.48 |
| Dawson Knox BUF | receptions | 3+ | YES | 0.20 | 22% | 0% | 1.5 (42% over) | 1.64 | 1.56 | 0.08 / 0.2 |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF | touchdowns | 1+ | NO | 0.69 | 71% | -0% | 0.5 (33% over) | 0.22 | 0.34 | 0.31 / 0.32 |
| Jameson Williams DET | receptions | 5+ | NO | 0.61 | 63% | -0% | 3.5 (60% over) | 3.08 | 4.01 | 0.39 / 0.4 |
| Josh Allen BUF | passing yards | 275+ | YES | 0.35 | 37% | -0% | 250.5 (50% over) | 252.19 | 251.01 | 0.34 / 0.35 |
| Khalil Shakir BUF | receptions | 6+ | NO | 0.74 | 76% | -1% | 4.5 (46% over) | 2.95 | 4.05 | 0.26 / 0.3 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | receiving yards | 25+ | NO | 0.41 | 43% | -1% | 29.5 (50% over) | 35.65 | 36.58 | 0.59 / 0.62 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | receptions | 4+ | NO | 0.40 | 42% | -1% | 4.5 (42% over) | 4.31 | 4.29 | 0.6 / 0.62 |
| DJ Moore BUF | receptions | 7+ | NO | 0.86 | 86% | -1% | 4.5 (49% over) | 2.13 | 3.95 | 0.14 / 0.21 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | receiving yards | 40+ | YES | 0.34 | 36% | -1% | 29.5 (50% over) | 35.65 | 36.58 | 0.29 / 0.34 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | touchdowns | 2+ | NO | 0.68 | 69% | -1% | 0.5 (69% over) | 0.97 | 1.12 | 0.32 / 0.33 |
| Jared Goff DET | interceptions | 1+ | YES | 0.49 | 51% | -1% | 0.5 (51% over) | 0.69 | 0.7 | 0.48 / 0.49 |
| Sam LaPorta DET | receiving yards | 45+ | NO | 0.52 | 53% | -1% | 46.5 (50% over) | 38.43 | 49.51 | 0.48 / 0.53 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | receptions | 6+ | NO | 0.71 | 72% | -1% | 4.5 (42% over) | 4.31 | 4.29 | 0.29 / 0.3 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | rushing yards | 70+ | YES | 0.68 | 69% | -1% | 90.5 (50% over) | 98.34 | 97.8 | 0.64 / 0.68 |
| Dawson Knox BUF | touchdowns | 1+ | NO | 0.87 | 87% | -1% | 0.5 (13% over) | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.13 / 0.14 |
| Jameson Williams DET | receiving yards | 70+ | NO | 0.65 | 66% | -2% | 59.5 (50% over) | 47.35 | 61.32 | 0.35 / 0.4 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET | receptions | 9+ | NO | 0.70 | 71% | -2% | 7.5 (49% over) | 5.32 | 7.01 | 0.3 / 0.34 |
| Sam LaPorta DET | touchdowns | 1+ | NO | 0.72 | 73% | -2% | 0.5 (30% over) | 0.22 | 0.32 | 0.28 / 0.29 |
| Dawson Knox BUF | receiving yards | 15+ | YES | 0.45 | 46% | -2% | 12.5 (50% over) | 21.13 | 20.06 | 0.43 / 0.45 |
| Josh Allen BUF | rushing yards | 50+ | YES | 0.25 | 27% | -2% | 30.5 (50% over) | 36.31 | 37.57 | 0.21 / 0.25 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | rushing yards | 100+ | YES | 0.41 | 42% | -2% | 90.5 (50% over) | 98.34 | 97.8 | 0.39 / 0.41 |
| Jameson Williams DET | receiving yards | 100+ | NO | 0.86 | 85% | -2% | 59.5 (50% over) | 47.35 | 61.32 | 0.14 / 0.19 |
| James Cook III BUF | rushing yards | 80+ | YES | 0.51 | 52% | -2% | 78.5 (50% over) | 94.89 | 89 | 0.5 / 0.51 |
| Josh Allen BUF | passing yards | 300+ | YES | 0.23 | 25% | -2% | 250.5 (50% over) | 252.19 | 251.01 | 0.22 / 0.23 |
| Khalil Shakir BUF | touchdowns | 1+ | NO | 0.73 | 73% | -2% | 0.5 (30% over) | 0.21 | 0.31 | 0.27 / 0.28 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | receiving yards | 30+ | NO | 0.50 | 51% | -2% | 29.5 (50% over) | 35.65 | 36.58 | 0.5 / 0.51 |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF | receptions | 2+ | NO | 0.16 | 17% | -2% | 3.5 (58% over) | 2.3 | 3.66 | 0.84 / 0.9 |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF | receiving yards | 70+ | NO | 0.75 | 75% | -2% | 49.5 (53% over) | 33.27 | 51.71 | 0.25 / 0.31 |
| James Cook III BUF | rushing yards | 50+ | YES | 0.81 | 81% | -3% | 78.5 (50% over) | 94.89 | 89 | 0.77 / 0.81 |
| Josh Allen BUF | touchdowns | 1+ | NO | 0.52 | 53% | -3% | 0.5 (51% over) | 0.48 | 0.64 | 0.48 / 0.49 |
| Isaac TeSlaa DET | touchdowns | 1+ | NO | 0.86 | 85% | -3% | 0.5 (15% over) | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.14 / 0.15 |
| James Cook III BUF | touchdowns | 2+ | NO | 0.82 | 82% | -3% | 0.5 (57% over) | 0.63 | 0.77 | 0.18 / 0.22 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET | touchdowns | 1+ | NO | 0.58 | 58% | -3% | 0.5 (45% over) | 0.41 | 0.54 | 0.42 / 0.43 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET | receptions | 11+ | NO | 0.88 | 87% | -3% | 7.5 (49% over) | 5.32 | 7.01 | 0.12 / 0.16 |
| Ray Davis BUF | touchdowns | 1+ | NO | 0.87 | 86% | -3% | 0.5 (15% over) | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.13 / 0.14 |
| Josh Allen BUF | passing yards | 200+ | YES | 0.77 | 77% | -3% | 250.5 (50% over) | 252.19 | 251.01 | 0.75 / 0.77 |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF | receptions | 6+ | NO | 0.81 | 81% | -3% | 3.5 (58% over) | 2.3 | 3.66 | 0.19 / 0.25 |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF | receiving yards | 90+ | NO | 0.88 | 87% | -3% | 49.5 (53% over) | 33.27 | 51.71 | 0.12 / 0.17 |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF | receiving yards | 80+ | NO | 0.82 | 82% | -3% | 49.5 (53% over) | 33.27 | 51.71 | 0.18 / 0.22 |
| Jameson Williams DET | receiving yards | 40+ | NO | 0.32 | 33% | -3% | 59.5 (50% over) | 47.35 | 61.32 | 0.68 / 0.7 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET | receiving yards | 40+ | YES | 0.86 | 84% | -3% | 79.5 (50% over) | 69.38 | 81.96 | 0.78 / 0.86 |
| Josh Allen BUF | passing yards | 325+ | NO | 0.87 | 85% | -3% | 250.5 (50% over) | 252.19 | 251.01 | 0.13 / 0.16 |
| Josh Allen BUF | passing yards | 175+ | YES | 0.88 | 86% | -3% | 250.5 (50% over) | 252.19 | 251.01 | 0.83 / 0.88 |
| Khalil Shakir BUF | receiving yards | 80+ | YES | 0.16 | 17% | -3% | 44.5 (50% over) | 42.22 | 49.12 | 0.11 / 0.16 |
| Khalil Shakir BUF | receptions | 3+ | NO | 0.27 | 28% | -3% | 4.5 (46% over) | 2.95 | 4.05 | 0.73 / 0.78 |
| Josh Allen BUF | rushing yards | 25+ | NO | 0.40 | 41% | -4% | 30.5 (50% over) | 36.31 | 37.57 | 0.6 / 0.61 |
| Josh Allen BUF | passing yards | 250+ | NO | 0.49 | 49% | -4% | 250.5 (50% over) | 252.19 | 251.01 | 0.51 / 0.52 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | touchdowns | 1+ | NO | 0.32 | 33% | -4% | 0.5 (69% over) | 0.97 | 1.12 | 0.68 / 0.69 |
| Keon Coleman BUF | touchdowns | 1+ | NO | 0.85 | 83% | -4% | 0.5 (17% over) | 0.2 | 0.19 | 0.15 / 0.16 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET | receiving yards | 110+ | NO | 0.78 | 77% | -4% | 79.5 (50% over) | 69.38 | 81.96 | 0.22 / 0.26 |
| Jameson Williams DET | touchdowns | 1+ | NO | 0.72 | 71% | -4% | 0.5 (32% over) | 0.25 | 0.34 | 0.28 / 0.29 |
| James Cook III BUF | touchdowns | 1+ | NO | 0.46 | 46% | -4% | 0.5 (57% over) | 0.63 | 0.77 | 0.54 / 0.55 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | receiving yards | 15+ | YES | 0.77 | 76% | -4% | 29.5 (50% over) | 35.65 | 36.58 | 0.75 / 0.77 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | rushing yards | 150+ | NO | 0.89 | 86% | -4% | 90.5 (50% over) | 98.34 | 97.8 | 0.11 / 0.12 |
| Ray Davis BUF | touchdowns | 1+ | YES | 0.14 | 14% | -4% | 0.5 (15% over) | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.13 / 0.14 |
| Khalil Shakir BUF | receiving yards | 50+ | YES | 0.40 | 40% | -4% | 44.5 (50% over) | 42.22 | 49.12 | 0.37 / 0.4 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | rushing yards | 110+ | YES | 0.34 | 35% | -4% | 90.5 (50% over) | 98.34 | 97.8 | 0.32 / 0.34 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET | receiving yards | 100+ | NO | 0.72 | 71% | -4% | 79.5 (50% over) | 69.38 | 81.96 | 0.28 / 0.31 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | rushing yards | 80+ | NO | 0.40 | 40% | -5% | 90.5 (50% over) | 98.34 | 97.8 | 0.6 / 0.62 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | rushing yards | 90+ | YES | 0.51 | 51% | -5% | 90.5 (50% over) | 98.34 | 97.8 | 0.49 / 0.51 |
| Sam LaPorta DET | receiving yards | 50+ | NO | 0.60 | 59% | -5% | 46.5 (50% over) | 38.43 | 49.51 | 0.4 / 0.46 |
| Jameson Williams DET | receiving yards | 90+ | NO | 0.82 | 80% | -5% | 59.5 (50% over) | 47.35 | 61.32 | 0.18 / 0.26 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | receptions | 5+ | NO | 0.59 | 58% | -5% | 4.5 (42% over) | 4.31 | 4.29 | 0.41 / 0.42 |
| Isaac TeSlaa DET | touchdowns | 1+ | YES | 0.15 | 15% | -5% | 0.5 (15% over) | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.14 / 0.15 |
| Josh Allen BUF | passing yards | 225+ | YES | 0.66 | 65% | -5% | 250.5 (50% over) | 252.19 | 251.01 | 0.64 / 0.66 |
| Jameson Williams DET | receptions | 7+ | NO | 0.89 | 86% | -5% | 3.5 (60% over) | 3.08 | 4.01 | 0.11 / 0.12 |
| Jameson Williams DET | receptions | 6+ | NO | 0.78 | 76% | -5% | 3.5 (60% over) | 3.08 | 4.01 | 0.22 / 0.28 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | receptions | 5+ | YES | 0.42 | 42% | -5% | 4.5 (42% over) | 4.31 | 4.29 | 0.41 / 0.42 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET | receiving yards | 130+ | NO | 0.90 | 86% | -5% | 79.5 (50% over) | 69.38 | 81.96 | 0.1 / 0.16 |
| Tetairoa McMillan CAR | receiving yards | 50+ | NO | 0.40 | 74% | 80% | none yet | 37.18 | 37.18 | 0.6 / 0.62 |
| Derrick Henry BAL | rushing yards | 140+ | YES | 0.15 | 27% | 76% | none yet | 114.65 | 114.65 | 0.02 / 0.15 |
| Jalen Hurts PHI | rushing yards | 15+ | NO | 0.32 | 58% | 75% | none yet | 18.05 | 18.05 | 0.68 / 0.83 |
| DeVonta Smith PHI | receiving yards | 60+ | NO | 0.46 | 79% | 68% | none yet | 39.74 | 39.74 | 0.54 / 0.55 |
| Ashton Jeanty LVA | rushing yards | 40+ | NO | 0.33 | 56% | 64% | none yet | 42.43 | 42.43 | 0.67 / 0.82 |
| Terry McLaurin WAS | receiving yards | 50+ | NO | 0.49 | 80% | 60% | none yet | 31.18 | 31.18 | 0.51 / 0.55 |
| Tony Pollard TEN | rushing yards | 25+ | NO | 0.33 | 55% | 60% | none yet | 28.99 | 28.99 | 0.67 / 0.82 |
| Kenneth Walker KCK | touchdowns | 1+ | NO | 0.39 | 64% | 60% | none yet | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.61 / 0.64 |
| Tetairoa McMillan CAR | receiving yards | 60+ | NO | 0.50 | 82% | 59% | none yet | 37.18 | 37.18 | 0.5 / 0.51 |
| David Montgomery HOU | touchdowns | 1+ | NO | 0.46 | 74% | 57% | none yet | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.54 / 0.55 |
| Devaughn Vele NOD | receiving yards | 25+ | NO | 0.40 | 64% | 56% | none yet | 23.85 | 23.85 | 0.6 / 0.74 |
| Saquon Barkley PHI | rushing yards | 80+ | NO | 0.53 | 84% | 55% | none yet | 48.81 | 48.81 | 0.47 / 0.51 |
Stat lines come from the same engine as the DFS projections. Spread of outcomes is calibrated on 2025 residuals: yards follow a Gamma with variance ≈ 24 × mean; receptions a negative binomial; touchdowns and interceptions Poisson. Every input is open data — Kalshi's documented public API, Pinnacle's guest API, ESPN's scoreboard, nflverse — see the data policy.