Kalshi NFL player props — model probability vs market price

286 priced sides across 571 open Kalshi player-stat markets, 20 player-stats anchored to Pinnacle's line. Updated 2026-11-02 23:11Z.

The spread is bigger than the edge. Across 1,249 sides we published and then tracked to kickoff, the market moved our way by 0.74¢ on average (Pinnacle-anchored rows) — while crossing the spread to get in costs about 2.8¢, before Kalshi's taker fee. So the honest instruction is not "buy this now". It is: here is what the contract is worth, and here is the price to rest a limit order at, where you pay no spread and a quarter of the fee. A read that loses money taken can make money waited for.

Where Pinnacle has posted a line, the model's distribution is re-centred so its probability at Pinnacle's line matches Pinnacle's de-vigged price (70% weight), then the whole ladder is priced from that. Rows without a Pinnacle line are the model alone — and those have been our worst-graded rows, which is why the anchored filter is on by default. This is data — a probability next to a price — not advice, and a resting order only pays if it fills.

Player	Stat	Strike	Side	Fair	Book	Rest at	Maker ROI	Take?	Pinnacle	kickoff
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	60+	NO	0.22	0.14 / 0.15	0.14	53%	0.15	100.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receptions	5+	NO	0.25	0.15 / 0.17	0.16	50%	0.17	7.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receptions	6+	NO	0.38	0.25 / 0.26	0.25	48%	0.26	7.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receptions	2+	NO	0.31	0.22 / 0.23	0.22	38%	0.23	2.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	rushing yards	20+	YES	0.16	0.11 / 0.12	0.11	34%	0.12	4.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	70+	NO	0.31	0.23 / 0.24	0.23	32%	0.24	100.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receptions	7+	NO	0.51	0.39 / 0.41	0.40	26%	0.41	7.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receptions	3+	NO	0.53	0.43 / 0.44	0.43	22%	0.44	2.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receptions	8+	NO	0.64	0.52 / 0.53	0.52	21%	0.53	7.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	90+	NO	0.49	0.40 / 0.41	0.40	21%	0.41	100.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	100+	NO	0.58	0.48 / 0.49	0.48	18%	0.49	100.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	80+	NO	0.41	0.33 / 0.34	0.33	20%	0.34	100.5	5d
Tory Horton SEA	receiving yards	20+	NO	0.51	0.42 / 0.43	0.42	18%	0.43	21.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	120+	NO	0.72	0.61 / 0.62	0.61	16%	0.62	100.5	5d
Tory Horton SEA	receptions	2+	NO	0.48	0.40 / 0.41	0.40	18%	0.41	1.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receptions	2+	NO	0.24	0.18 / 0.20	0.19	23%	0.20	3.5	5d
Tory Horton SEA	receiving yards	25+	NO	0.59	0.51 / 0.52	0.51	14%	0.52	21.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receptions	9+	NO	0.74	0.65 / 0.66	0.65	13%	0.66	7.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	130+	NO	0.77	0.68 / 0.69	0.68	12%	0.69	100.5	5d
Tory Horton SEA	receiving yards	30+	NO	0.66	0.58 / 0.59	0.58	13%	0.59	21.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	110+	NO	0.65	0.57 / 0.58	0.57	13%	0.58	100.5	5d
Tory Horton SEA	receptions	3+	NO	0.71	0.62 / 0.63	0.62	12%	0.63	1.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	receiving yards	10+	NO	0.63	0.55 / 0.56	0.55	12%	0.56	7.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receiving yards	30+	NO	0.56	0.49 / 0.50	0.49	12%	0.50	29.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receptions	3+	NO	0.45	0.39 / 0.40	0.39	13%	0.40	3.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receiving yards	25+	NO	0.47	0.41 / 0.42	0.41	12%	0.42	30.5	5d
Tory Horton SEA	receiving yards	40+	NO	0.77	0.70 / 0.71	0.70	9%	0.71	21.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receptions	4+	NO	0.72	0.65 / 0.66	0.65	9%	0.66	2.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receiving yards	30+	NO	0.55	0.49 / 0.50	0.49	10%	0.50	30.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	140+	NO	0.82	0.75 / 0.76	0.75	8%	0.76	100.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	rushing yards	5+	NO	0.54	0.48 / 0.49	0.48	10%	0.49	4.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receptions	4+	NO	0.64	0.58 / 0.59	0.58	8%	0.59	3.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	receptions	2+	NO	0.66	0.60 / 0.61	0.60	8%	0.61	1.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receiving yards	25+	NO	0.48	0.42 / 0.44	0.43	9%	0.44	29.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receptions	5+	NO	0.78	0.72 / 0.73	0.72	7%	0.73	3.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receiving yards	40+	NO	0.69	0.63 / 0.64	0.63	8%	0.64	29.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	receiving yards	15+	NO	0.73	0.67 / 0.68	0.67	7%	0.68	7.5	5d
Tory Horton SEA	receiving yards	50+	NO	0.85	0.79 / 0.80	0.79	6%	0.80	21.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receptions	10+	NO	0.83	0.77 / 0.78	0.77	6%	0.78	7.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rushing yards	35+	YES	0.40	0.36 / 0.37	0.36	9%	0.37	27.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receiving yards	40+	NO	0.68	0.63 / 0.64	0.63	6%	0.64	30.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receptions	5+	NO	0.84	0.79 / 0.80	0.79	5%	0.80	2.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receiving yards	20+	NO	0.39	0.35 / 0.36	0.35	8%	0.36	29.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	passing yards	225+	NO	0.45	0.41 / 0.42	0.41	8%	0.42	238.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rushing yards	15+	YES	0.75	0.7 / 0.71	0.70	5%	0.71	27.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	150+	NO	0.86	0.82 / 0.83	0.82	4%	0.83	100.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	passing yards	300+	NO	0.84	0.79 / 0.80	0.79	5%	0.80	238.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receiving yards	20+	NO	0.38	0.33 / 0.35	0.34	8%	0.35	30.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receiving yards	50+	NO	0.78	0.74 / 0.75	0.74	4%	0.75	29.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	passing yards	275+	NO	0.73	0.69 / 0.70	0.69	5%	0.70	238.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	passing yards	250+	NO	0.60	0.56 / 0.57	0.56	5%	0.57	238.5	5d
Tory Horton SEA	receptions	4+	NO	0.85	0.81 / 0.82	0.81	4%	0.82	1.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rushing yards	10+	YES	0.85	0.81 / 0.82	0.81	4%	0.82	27.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	receiving yards	20+	NO	0.80	0.76 / 0.77	0.76	4%	0.77	7.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receptions	6+	NO	0.88	0.85 / 0.86	0.85	2%	0.86	3.5	5d
Emanuel Wilson SEA	touchdowns	1+	YES	0.23	0.2 / 0.21	0.20	11%	0.21	0.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rushing yards	30+	YES	0.47	0.44 / 0.45	0.44	5%	0.45	27.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	receptions	3+	NO	0.84	0.81 / 0.83	0.82	2%	0.83	1.5	5d
Tory Horton SEA	receiving yards	15+	NO	0.40	0.37 / 0.38	0.37	6%	0.38	21.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receiving yards	60+	NO	0.85	0.83 / 0.84	—	—	no	29.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	receiving yards	25+	NO	0.85	0.83 / 0.84	—	—	no	7.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receiving yards	15+	NO	0.29	0.26 / 0.27	0.26	7%	no	29.5	5d
Emanuel Wilson SEA	rushing yards	20+	YES	0.55	0.52 / 0.53	0.52	3%	no	20.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	interceptions	2+	NO	0.83	0.82 / 0.83	—	—	no	0.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receiving yards	50+	NO	0.77	0.75 / 0.76	0.75	2%	no	30.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	rushing yards	10+	NO	0.69	0.67 / 0.68	0.67	2%	no	4.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receiving yards	15+	NO	0.28	0.25 / 0.26	0.25	7%	no	30.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receiving yards	10+	YES	0.83	0.82 / 0.83	—	—	no	30.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	touchdowns	1+	NO	0.79	0.77 / 0.78	0.77	1%	no	0.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rushing yards	25+	NO	0.44	0.42 / 0.43	0.42	3%	no	27.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	rushing yards	15+	YES	0.22	0.19 / 0.2	0.19	9%	no	4.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rushing yards	20+	YES	0.65	0.63 / 0.64	—	—	no	27.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receiving yards	60+	NO	0.84	0.84 / 0.85	—	—	no	30.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receiving yards	10+	YES	0.82	0.82 / 0.83	—	—	no	29.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	touchdowns	2+	NO	0.86	0.86 / 0.87	—	—	no	0.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	touchdowns	1+	NO	0.52	0.50 / 0.51	—	—	no	0.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	touchdowns	1+	NO	0.61	0.60 / 0.61	—	—	no	0.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	passing yards	200+	NO	0.31	0.29 / 0.30	0.29	4%	no	238.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rushing yards	60+	YES	0.16	0.14 / 0.16	0.14	11%	no	27.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	touchdowns	1+	NO	0.74	0.73 / 0.74	—	—	no	0.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	passing yards	175+	NO	0.19	0.17 / 0.18	0.17	8%	no	238.5	5d
Tory Horton SEA	receiving yards	10+	YES	0.72	0.72 / 0.73	—	—	no	21.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rushing yards	60+	NO	0.84	0.84 / 0.86	—	—	no	27.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	passing yards	175+	YES	0.81	0.82 / 0.83	—	—	no	238.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rushing yards	40+	NO	0.66	0.66 / 0.67	—	—	no	27.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	interceptions	1+	YES	0.52	0.51 / 0.52	—	—	no	0.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rushing yards	50+	NO	0.76	0.77 / 0.78	—	—	no	27.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	touchdowns	2+	YES	0.14	0.13 / 0.14	—	—	no	0.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	interceptions	1+	NO	0.48	0.48 / 0.49	—	—	no	0.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rushing yards	50+	YES	0.24	0.22 / 0.23	—	—	no	27.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	passing yards	200+	YES	0.69	0.7 / 0.71	—	—	no	238.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	rushing yards	15+	NO	0.78	0.80 / 0.81	—	—	no	4.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	50+	YES	0.86	0.89 / 0.9	—	—	no	100.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receiving yards	15+	YES	0.72	0.74 / 0.75	—	—	no	30.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	rushing yards	20+	NO	0.84	0.88 / 0.89	—	—	no	4.5	5d
Emanuel Wilson SEA	touchdowns	1+	NO	0.77	0.79 / 0.80	—	—	no	0.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receiving yards	15+	YES	0.71	0.73 / 0.74	—	—	no	29.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rushing yards	40+	YES	0.34	0.33 / 0.34	—	—	no	27.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receptions	4+	YES	0.86	0.9 / 0.91	—	—	no	7.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	touchdowns	1+	YES	0.48	0.49 / 0.5	—	—	no	0.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receiving yards	60+	YES	0.16	0.15 / 0.16	—	—	no	30.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rushing yards	25+	YES	0.56	0.57 / 0.58	—	—	no	27.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	touchdowns	1+	YES	0.39	0.39 / 0.4	—	—	no	0.5	5d
Tory Horton SEA	receiving yards	15+	YES	0.60	0.62 / 0.63	—	—	no	21.5	5d
Tory Horton SEA	receiving yards	10+	NO	0.28	0.27 / 0.28	—	—	no	21.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receiving yards	20+	YES	0.61	0.64 / 0.65	—	—	no	29.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	touchdowns	1+	YES	0.26	0.26 / 0.27	—	—	no	0.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rushing yards	35+	NO	0.60	0.63 / 0.64	—	—	no	27.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rushing yards	30+	NO	0.53	0.55 / 0.56	—	—	no	27.5	5d
Emanuel Wilson SEA	rushing yards	20+	NO	0.45	0.47 / 0.48	—	—	no	20.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receiving yards	20+	YES	0.62	0.65 / 0.67	—	—	no	30.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rushing yards	20+	NO	0.35	0.36 / 0.37	—	—	no	27.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receptions	2+	YES	0.76	0.8 / 0.82	—	—	no	3.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	passing yards	225+	YES	0.55	0.58 / 0.59	—	—	no	238.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	60+	YES	0.78	0.85 / 0.86	—	—	no	100.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receiving yards	10+	NO	0.18	0.17 / 0.18	—	—	no	29.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	rushing yards	10+	YES	0.31	0.32 / 0.33	—	—	no	4.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	passing yards	250+	YES	0.40	0.43 / 0.44	—	—	no	238.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receptions	5+	YES	0.75	0.83 / 0.85	—	—	no	7.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receptions	3+	YES	0.55	0.6 / 0.61	—	—	no	3.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receiving yards	25+	YES	0.53	0.58 / 0.59	—	—	no	30.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	70+	YES	0.69	0.76 / 0.77	—	—	no	100.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receiving yards	25+	YES	0.52	0.56 / 0.58	—	—	no	29.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	80+	YES	0.59	0.66 / 0.67	—	—	no	100.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receptions	2+	YES	0.69	0.77 / 0.78	—	—	no	2.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	rushing yards	5+	YES	0.46	0.51 / 0.52	—	—	no	4.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receiving yards	30+	YES	0.45	0.5 / 0.51	—	—	no	30.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	receiving yards	25+	YES	0.15	0.16 / 0.17	—	—	no	7.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receiving yards	10+	NO	0.17	0.17 / 0.18	—	—	no	30.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receiving yards	60+	YES	0.15	0.16 / 0.17	—	—	no	29.5	5d
Tory Horton SEA	receptions	2+	YES	0.52	0.59 / 0.6	—	—	no	1.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receiving yards	50+	YES	0.23	0.24 / 0.25	—	—	no	30.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	touchdowns	1+	YES	0.21	0.22 / 0.23	—	—	no	0.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receiving yards	30+	YES	0.44	0.5 / 0.51	—	—	no	29.5	5d
Tory Horton SEA	receiving yards	20+	YES	0.49	0.57 / 0.58	—	—	no	21.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receiving yards	40+	YES	0.32	0.36 / 0.37	—	—	no	30.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receptions	4+	YES	0.36	0.41 / 0.42	—	—	no	3.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	90+	YES	0.51	0.59 / 0.6	—	—	no	100.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	interceptions	2+	YES	0.17	0.17 / 0.18	—	—	no	0.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	passing yards	275+	YES	0.27	0.3 / 0.31	—	—	no	238.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	receptions	2+	YES	0.34	0.39 / 0.4	—	—	no	1.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receptions	6+	YES	0.62	0.74 / 0.75	—	—	no	7.5	5d
Tory Horton SEA	receiving yards	25+	YES	0.41	0.48 / 0.49	—	—	no	21.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receiving yards	40+	YES	0.31	0.36 / 0.37	—	—	no	29.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	receiving yards	10+	YES	0.37	0.44 / 0.45	—	—	no	7.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receptions	3+	YES	0.47	0.56 / 0.57	—	—	no	2.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rushing yards	15+	NO	0.25	0.29 / 0.30	—	—	no	27.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	100+	YES	0.42	0.51 / 0.52	—	—	no	100.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receptions	7+	YES	0.49	0.59 / 0.61	—	—	no	7.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	receiving yards	15+	YES	0.27	0.32 / 0.33	—	—	no	7.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receiving yards	50+	YES	0.22	0.25 / 0.26	—	—	no	29.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	receiving yards	20+	YES	0.20	0.23 / 0.24	—	—	no	7.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	110+	YES	0.35	0.42 / 0.43	—	—	no	100.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receptions	4+	YES	0.28	0.34 / 0.35	—	—	no	2.5	5d
Tory Horton SEA	receiving yards	30+	YES	0.34	0.41 / 0.42	—	—	no	21.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receptions	6+	YES	0.12	0.14 / 0.15	—	—	no	3.5	5d
Tory Horton SEA	receptions	3+	YES	0.29	0.37 / 0.38	—	—	no	1.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	receptions	3+	YES	0.16	0.17 / 0.19	—	—	no	1.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receptions	8+	YES	0.36	0.47 / 0.48	—	—	no	7.5	5d
AJ Barner SEA	receptions	5+	YES	0.22	0.27 / 0.28	—	—	no	3.5	5d
Tory Horton SEA	receiving yards	40+	YES	0.23	0.29 / 0.3	—	—	no	21.5	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rushing yards	10+	NO	0.15	0.18 / 0.19	—	—	no	27.5	5d
Tory Horton SEA	receptions	4+	YES	0.15	0.18 / 0.19	—	—	no	1.5	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	passing yards	300+	YES	0.16	0.2 / 0.21	—	—	no	238.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receptions	9+	YES	0.26	0.34 / 0.35	—	—	no	7.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	120+	YES	0.28	0.38 / 0.39	—	—	no	100.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	150+	YES	0.14	0.17 / 0.18	—	—	no	100.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receptions	10+	YES	0.17	0.22 / 0.23	—	—	no	7.5	5d
Cooper Kupp SEA	receptions	5+	YES	0.16	0.2 / 0.21	—	—	no	2.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	130+	YES	0.23	0.31 / 0.32	—	—	no	100.5	5d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	receiving yards	140+	YES	0.18	0.24 / 0.25	—	—	no	100.5	5d
Tory Horton SEA	receiving yards	50+	YES	0.15	0.2 / 0.21	—	—	no	21.5	5d
George Holani SEA	touchdowns	1+	YES	0.15	0.12 / 0.13	0.12	19%	0.13	none	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	passing TDs	3+	YES	0.25	0.2 / 0.21	0.20	18%	0.21	none	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	passing TDs	1+	NO	0.18	0.16 / 0.17	0.16	7%	0.17	none	5d
Tory Horton SEA	touchdowns	1+	NO	0.84	0.81 / 0.82	0.81	2%	no	none	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rush+rec yards	50+	NO	0.63	0.61 / 0.62	0.61	2%	no	none	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rush+rec yards	75+	NO	0.83	0.82 / 0.84	—	—	no	none	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	passing TDs	1+	YES	0.82	0.83 / 0.84	—	—	no	none	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	passing TDs	2+	YES	0.51	0.5 / 0.51	—	—	no	none	5d
George Holani SEA	touchdowns	1+	NO	0.85	0.87 / 0.88	—	—	no	none	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	passing TDs	2+	NO	0.49	0.49 / 0.50	—	—	no	none	5d
Sam Darnold SEA	passing TDs	3+	NO	0.75	0.79 / 0.80	—	—	no	none	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rush+rec yards	50+	YES	0.37	0.38 / 0.39	—	—	no	none	5d
Zach Charbonnet SEA	rush+rec yards	75+	YES	0.17	0.16 / 0.18	—	—	no	none	5d
Tory Horton SEA	touchdowns	1+	YES	0.16	0.18 / 0.19	—	—	no	none	5d

Report card — published sides vs what happened

Week	sides	hit	Brier model	Brier market	ROI all	ROI anchored	ROI model-only	ROI edge ≥ 20%
2026 wk 8	701	51%	0.193	0.1951	-3%	0%	-7%	41% (142)
2026 wk 7	583	51%	0.2329	0.2146	-4%	-3%	-5%	-2% (71)
2026 wk 6	787	51%	0.1811	0.1813	-3%	-1%	-13%	-25% (78)
2026 wk 5	734	52%	0.1859	0.2136	7%	7%	6%	73% (187)
2026 wk 4	653	51%	0.2122	0.2284	-5%	-4%	-7%	42% (119)
2026 wk 3	667	50%	0.2418	0.2475	-5%	-4%	-6%	39% (120)
2026 wk 2	162	51%	0.2419	0.2465	7%	11%	-53%	74% (32)

Each side graded at the last price we published before its market closed, net of fee. A Brier score below the market's means the model's probabilities were sharper than the prices. Calibration by bucket is in grades.json.

How

Stat lines come from the same engine as the DFS projections. Spread of outcomes is calibrated on 2025 residuals: yards follow a Gamma with variance ≈ 24 × mean; receptions a negative binomial; touchdowns and interceptions Poisson. Every input is open data — Kalshi's documented public API, Pinnacle's guest API, ESPN's scoreboard, nflverse — see the data policy.

dfsroto is independent software and data. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by DraftKings, Kalshi, Pinnacle, ESPN or the NFL; their names identify the data only. Probabilities and projections are information, not advice. 18+. Terms · Privacy · Data policy