Kaelon Black RB · SF vs MIA · Q

2026 week 2 · Week slate · DraftKings $4,500 · projected 2026-09-18 03:04Z

5.4projected DK points

2.4–9.3floor – ceiling

5%projected ownership (heuristic)

29.0SF implied total · MIA 15.5

Projected stat line

Rush yds	40.2
Rush TD	0.16
Rec	0.22
Rec yds	2.0

thin sample (1 g) · status Q ×0.85

Kalshi props — model probability vs price

Stat	Strike	Side	Price	p	ROI	Pinnacle
rushing yards	30+	NO	0.36	45%	19%	none
touchdowns	1+	NO	0.74	84%	11%	none

Data, not advice. Full ladder on /props.

How this number is made

Market-implied team total (DraftKings line via ESPN) × this player's trailing share of team targets, carries and attempts × regressed efficiency, scored with DraftKings' exact rules. Injured-out teammates' share is redistributed. This week's full board · data policy.

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