Patrick Mahomes QB · KC vs IND

2026 week 2 · Week slate · DraftKings $5,500 · projected 2026-09-18 03:04Z

19.8projected DK points
13.3–28.3floor – ceiling
35%projected ownership (heuristic)
26.5KC implied total · IND 20.0

Projected stat line

Pass yds237.9
Pass TD1.61
INT0.74
Rush yds22.5
Rush TD0.28
Rec0.04
Rec yds0.5

starter (last game)

Kalshi props — model probability vs price

StatStrikeSidePricepROIPinnacle
rushing yards40+YES0.1419%29%17.5
passing yards225+YES0.4751%5%221.5
touchdowns1+YES0.2225%4%none
interceptions1+YES0.4346%2%0.5

Data, not advice. Full ladder on /props.

How this number is made

Market-implied team total (DraftKings line via ESPN) × this player's trailing share of team targets, carries and attempts × regressed efficiency, scored with DraftKings' exact rules. Injured-out teammates' share is redistributed. This week's full board · data policy.