Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX vs BAL

2026 week 9 · Week slate · DraftKings $6,400 · projected 2026-11-03 04:00Z

18.5projected DK points
12.4–26.5floor – ceiling
4%projected ownership (heuristic)
–JAX implied total

Projected stat line

Pass yds217.6
Pass TD1.66
INT0.62
Rush yds22.7
Rush TD0.21

starter (last game)

Kalshi props — model probability vs price

StatStrikeSidePricepROIPinnacle
rushing yards30+YES0.1724%33%12.5
passing TDs1+NO0.1619%13%none
rushing yards20+YES0.3238%11%12.5
rushing yards10+YES0.5461%8%12.5
passing TDs2+NO0.4551%8%none
rushing yards15+YES0.4348%6%12.5
passing yards250+NO0.5661%5%237.5
passing yards225+NO0.4446%-0%237.5
passing yards200+NO0.3032%-1%237.5
passing TDs3+NO0.7777%-3%none
passing yards300+NO0.8684%-3%237.5
touchdowns1+NO0.8381%-4%none
passing yards275+NO0.7574%-4%237.5
passing yards175+YES0.8580%-7%237.5
interceptions1+YES0.4846%-8%none
interceptions2+NO0.9687%-10%none
passing yards200+YES0.7468%-10%237.5
interceptions1+NO0.5854%-11%none
passing TDs1+YES0.9081%-11%none
passing yards225+YES0.6054%-13%237.5
touchdowns1+YES0.2019%-13%none
rushing yards40+NO0.9785%-13%12.5
passing yards175+NO0.2120%-15%237.5
passing yards250+YES0.4540%-17%237.5

Data, not advice. Full ladder on /props.

How this number is made

Market-implied team total (DraftKings line via ESPN) × this player's trailing share of team targets, carries and attempts × regressed efficiency, scored with DraftKings' exact rules. Injured-out teammates' share is redistributed. This week's full board · data policy.