Report card — how our numbers actually did

Every projection and every prop side on this site is published before kickoff and graded afterwards against what actually happened. Nothing here is a backtest. When the numbers are bad, they stay up.

0.2419our Brier score, week 2
market: 0.2465 — lower is sharper

51.2%of published sides hit
162 graded

0.509projection correlation
122 players ≥6 pts · MAE 6.13

+0.74¢closing-line value, anchored
757 sides tracked to kickoff

Every graded week

Week	players	r	MAE	sides	hit	our Brier	market Brier	ROI anchored	ROI model-only
2026 wk 2	122	0.509	6.13	162	51.2%	0.2419	0.2465	10.7%	-52.6%

A Brier score below the market's means our probabilities were sharper than the prices they were quoted against. One week is an anecdote; the table is here so you can watch whether it holds.

Closing-line value

Outcome grading needs hundreds of settled contracts before it means anything. Closing-line value needs far fewer: if the sides we flag get more expensive before kickoff, we were finding real mispricing — whether or not any single contract hit. Measured on the mid, because Kalshi's books tighten as a game approaches (5.5¢ spread at open, 2.1¢ near kickoff) and comparing executable prices would manufacture a loss on every side, both directions.

Population	sides	beat the close	mean CLV
Pinnacle-anchored	757	50.5%	+0.74¢
Model alone, no anchor	492	40.0%	-0.20¢
Half-spread paid to cross	—	—	+2.81¢

Read it plainly: the anchored signal is real but small, and it is smaller than the cost of crossing the spread. That is why the props page leads with a resting-order price instead of telling you to buy at the ask.

What we'd tell you not to trust yet

Model-only rows — the ones with no Pinnacle line to anchor against — have graded badly on both measures. They are shown because hiding them would make this page a sales pitch instead of a record, but the anchored filter is on by default for a reason. Sample sizes here are still small enough that a good week and a real edge look identical. Check back.

dfsroto is independent software and data. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by DraftKings, Kalshi, Pinnacle, ESPN or the NFL; their names identify the data only. Probabilities and projections are information, not advice. 18+. Terms · Privacy · Data policy